Donald Duke’s Blueprint for Nigeria: The Case for 300 Naira Fuel, Economic Productivity, and a Reality Check on Mega-Projects
High cost and even the bank will not even give you because they know that you can’t pay, right? Reduce the bank rate so the the the central bank will tell you that oh it’s because of inflation. What are the inflationary items? Your cost of fuel is is is is horrendous. So that is an inflationary factor, and that’s why it makes it incumbent to try and bring down the price of fuel as low as possible. The minister, and I was really embarrassed when listening to the minister, I have to find…, I have never met the guy. I had to do a dig deep on his background. He’s a tax man, and he was focused like a Zacchaeus on taxes, trying to raise money and saying that, “Oh, you wouldn’t be able to run the economy if you price petroleum at that point.”Look, if you say you’re the largest economy in Africa and your GDP is about 400 and something billion or so, on the figures, you should be able to raise about 15 to 20% of your GDP as your budget. We are still at 5%. So we’re not even…Excerpt from wise literal words of Donald Duke The PRP Presidential Candidate for 2027 Elections in Nigeria
As Nigeria navigates a complex economic landscape marked by high inflation, currency volatility, and debates over infrastructure spending, former Governor and People’s Redemption Party (PRP) presidential candidate Donald Duke has laid out a stark critique of the current administration’s direction. In a recent comprehensive interview, Duke presented a detailed alternative framework for the nation, centering on radical fuel pricing reforms, a rejection of financially unviable mega-projects, and a fundamental shift from revenue extraction to citizen productivity.
The 300 Naira Fuel Proposition: A Mathematical Argument
At the heart of Duke’s economic proposal is the assertion that petrol in Nigeria can and should be sold at approximately 300 Naira per liter. He argues that the current high pump prices are not a reflection of true production costs, but rather the result of systemic inefficiencies and padded expenses.
According to Duke, the actual production cost of a barrel of crude oil in Nigeria is between $12 and $15. However, oil-producing companies report costs between $25 and $45 per barrel. He attributes this massive discrepancy to inflated security costs and the expense of operating amidst dilapidated infrastructure.
Breaking down the economics, Duke estimates an average crude cost of $35 per barrel. Adding $3 for transportation to the refinery (specifically citing the Dangote Refinery) and $10 for refining brings the total to $48 per barrel. With a standard yield of 170 liters of petrol per barrel of Bonny Light crude, the base cost translates to roughly 282 Naira per liter. When average distribution costs, regulatory fees, depot charges, and marketing margins (estimated at 75 to 90 Naira) are added, the total cost reaches approximately 471 Naira per liter.
Duke argues that the government can bridge the gap to 300 Naira by leveraging the profit margins from the seven other byproducts derived from refining a barrel of crude, such as aviation fuel, naphtha, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). By cross-subsidizing petrol with these more lucrative derivatives, the government could dampen the price of the nation’s most critical economic input.
Addressing the inevitable concern of fuel smuggling to neighboring countries, Duke proposed a pragmatic solution: dyeing Nigerian fuel a distinct color, such as black or green. This would allow security agencies to easily identify and track smuggled fuel abroad, ensuring that the government does not “punish its own citizens for its inability to secure its borders.”
A Reality Check on the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway
Beyond energy, Duke directed sharp criticism at the federal government’s flagship infrastructure project, the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. He dismissed the project as financially unviable and technically “unbuildable” due to the swampy terrain of the Niger Delta, particularly in states like Bayelsa.
Duke characterized the ambitious coastal route, which originally proposed sand-filling from Victoria Island, as a “land grab” rather than a genuine infrastructural necessity. He expressed vindication following recent admissions by government officials that parts of the project would be diverted to align with the existing East-West Highway, questioning why this alternative was not considered from the outset. For Duke, prioritizing such a monumental expense while critical sectors like healthcare remain severely underfunded—citing a mere 36 million Naira released against a 300 billion Naira health budget—demonstrates a dangerous misalignment of national priorities.
The Illusion of the “Largest Economy”
Duke also challenged the prevailing narrative that Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa. He pointed out the stark contradiction of a nation boasting such a title while simultaneously harboring the largest number of multidimensionally poor people and out-of-school children in the world.
He criticized the current economic management, particularly the focus on aggressive tax generation by the coordinating minister of the economy. Duke argued that this “taxman” mentality focuses narrowly on revenue extraction rather than fostering the overall productivity of the economy. He warned that no economy can grow with interest rates hovering around 30%, as it stifles borrowing, investment, and business expansion.
Furthermore, Duke took issue with the decision to float the Naira without addressing underlying structural issues. He likened a national currency to a citizen’s reputation: it should be carefully managed, not blindly floated. He cautioned against using the size of foreign exchange reserves as the sole metric of economic health, noting that high reserves often simply reflect a heavy reliance on imports and foreign manufacturing, rather than robust domestic production.
A Call for Competent Leadership
Touching on the political landscape, Duke lamented the fragmentation of the opposition, likening it to “leper fingers” that have been co-opted or neutralized by the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC). He stressed that a divided opposition only serves to entrench the ruling party.
Ultimately, Duke’s message is a warning. He believes Nigeria is on a trajectory toward disaster if the current political games continue. His proposed alternative is clear: prioritize the productivity of the citizenry, aggressively lower the cost of energy, manage the currency to favor domestic production, and abandon grandiose projects that the nation cannot afford. Whether the political establishment is ready to heed this blueprint remains to be seen, but Duke’s detailed articulation of the country’s economic contradictions has undeniably set a high bar for the 2027 political discourse.